I decide to try a $50 iAd banner campaign to see if would have any effect. I didn't expect it to work brilliant, but I wasn't expecting it to be quite as bad as it was. It resulted in zero downloads! So, a complete waste of $50 (well, apart from the fact that I now know not to use iAd for paid games). The full results are:
As an aside, Admob ads on Android seem to be having some effect on overall income, but the increase is more that it should be due to the relatively low number of conversions, so there may be some other factor at work (such as a lucky week). I'll post more info when I've got more data.
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